Discover the three-move checkmate to break shoppers’ habits.

Hamza is the newly appointed CMO of an aspiring energy drink that struggles to get listed in stores. As a narrowly distributed CPG brand, it has a higher chance (than the big brands) to gain penetration. But still, the odds are against them.

He knows the rules: their lower market share grants them fewer buyers who purchase them less frequently. The main way to gain more buyers is to steal from the competition. The ‘good’ news is that shaky macroeconomics prompt shoppers to look around more. The bad news is that not all brands truly understand who they are competing with. When we studied 190 UK grocery categories, we realised that one in five failed the ‘good fit’ test – in other words, many of the smaller brands had lower frequency of purchase than expected for their penetration, and that Double Jeopardy – the most renowned marketing principle – wasn’t precise for them.

How can Hamza define their true competition, assess the future number of buyers accurately, and tip the odds of winning in their favour?